The guidance this question is about is "no major changes for 90 days after moving into a new management roll." Is there ever a case where this is not true? I ask because of a potential internal move. I have many years working with people who would be my new directs. I've seen their behaviors and work output over this time. There is potentially one future direct that I don't see as capable of improving based on my knowledge of their work history.
Would releasing them immediately cause more damage than good?

Reminder: Podcasts recommend for 90% of people 90% of the time
Only regular occurrences I can think of are for clear strategic or existential threat: executives or senior-managers to instigate action.
Your situation would be covered, I contend, under Mark’s 90% rule-of-thumb I cite in the subject line. If their results so far haven’t been bad enough to provoke termination, delaying another 90 days to be sure from your own feedback and coaching seems prudent.